Open seminar: Whose nuclear umbrella in 2040? The future of deterrence and the transatlantic security in a fragmenting world order

Welcome to a seminar focusing on nuclear deterrence and transatlantic security in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

As the global security landscape continues to shift, the future of nuclear deterrence and transatlantic defence cooperation faces growing uncertainty. With rising geopolitical tensions, the return of great power competition, and increasing doubts about the durability of long-standing alliances, a pressing question emerges: Whose nuclear umbrella will Europe rely on in 2040?

This inquiry takes on new urgency as the credibility of the U.S. nuclear guarantee is being questioned. Meanwhile, regional powers are reassessing their defence postures and exploring alternative security arrangements in a world where the liberal international order is giving way to fragmentation and strategic ambiguity.

This discussion seeks to explore potential futures for nuclear deterrence, the evolving dynamics within NATO, and the broader implications for European security in an era where alliances cannot necessarily be taken for granted.

Speakers

Bruno Tertrais, Deputy Director, Foundation pour la recherche stratégique

Jeffrey Michaels, Strategic Advisor, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

Moderator

Kjell Engelbrekt, Professor of Political Science, Swedish Defence University